老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：12 E
名稱：Akoni

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 04 日 19 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 06 日 07 時- CPHC命名
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 08 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：40 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99E INVEST 190904 1200 13.6N 140.2W EPAC 25 1006


  NHC：70%  

1. Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure has
formed in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific about
1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.  The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has quickly become
better organized overnight and a tropical depression could be
forming.  If recent development trends continue, advisories could
be initiated on this system later today or tonight.  The system will
be moving into the Central Pacific basin this morning.  Future
information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

才剛編擾不到四小時,NHC隨即將99E升格TD.12E

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041443
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122019
500 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

A small well-defined low pressure system quickly developed late
yesterday and early this morning over the far western portion of the
eastern North Pacific. Beginning around 0600 UTC, a large increase
in convection was noted with the low, and convection has continued
to increase since then. AMSR-2 imagery at 1030 UTC showed that the
convection is fairly well organized in bands, enough to designate
the system as a tropical cyclone. Advisories have therefore been
initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve-E. The initial intensity of
the depression is 25 kt, based on ASCAT data from early this
morning.

The track forecast is based on a blend of the explicit low positions
in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. All of these models
forecast that the depression will move generally westward for the
next 3 days, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest, steered
primarily by a low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the
depression. There is a fair amount of difference in those models
regarding the speed at which the depression will move west, and this
appears to be the largest source of uncertainty in the forecast.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low for this initial
advisory, but hopefully will increase with subsequent forecasts.

The depression appears to be located within an environment that will
support at least slow strengthening. In fact, the GFS, SHIPS and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models all call for strengthening at varying
rates. Strong shear to the north and northwest of the depression
could be a limiting factor in a few days, especially if the
depression moves farther north than currently expected. The NHC
forecast accordingly calls for slow strengthening through 96 h. More
intensity guidance will be available with the next advisory, and
users should keep in mind that large changes may be required to the
intensity forecast based on that guidance. Confidence in this
aspect of the forecast is also lower than usual.

This system has moved into the Central Pacific basin and subsequent
advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 13.2N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  05/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  05/1200Z 12.6N 143.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  06/0000Z 12.6N 144.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  06/1200Z 12.6N 145.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  08/1200Z 14.5N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 16.0N 161.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Meow

前面停滯5天？

1. EP, 12, 2019082912,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
2. EP, 12, 2019082918,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
3. EP, 12, 2019083000,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
4. EP, 12, 2019083006,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
5. EP, 12, 2019083012,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
6. EP, 12, 2019083018,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
7. EP, 12, 2019083100,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
8. EP, 12, 2019083106,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
9. EP, 12, 2019083112,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
   
10. EP, 12, 2019083118,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
11. EP, 12, 2019090100,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
12. EP, 12, 2019090106,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
13. EP, 12, 2019090112,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
14. EP, 12, 2019090118,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
15. EP, 12, 2019090200,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
16. EP, 12, 2019090206,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
17. EP, 12, 2019090212,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
18. EP, 12, 2019090218,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
19. EP, 12, 2019090300,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
20. EP, 12, 2019090306,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
21. EP, 12, 2019090312,   , BEST,   0, 150N, 1300W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
22. EP, 12, 2019090318,   , BEST,   0, 143N, 1367W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
23. EP, 12, 2019090400,   , BEST,   0, 139N, 1383W,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
24. EP, 12, 2019090406,   , BEST,   0, 137N, 1396W,  25,    0, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150, 100,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS027,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
    
25. EP, 12, 2019090412,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1400W,  25, 1009, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150, 100,  35,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TWELVE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, ep782019 to ep992019, TRANSITIONED, epB92019 to ep122019,

複製代碼

霧峰追風者

進入中太，CPHC 接手發報，巔峰上望60kt不封頂。

00
WTPA43 PHFO 042110
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   2...Correction
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122019
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 04 2019

The earlier burst of convection over TD 12E has faded, leaving a
rather ragged and elliptical looking system. Recent ASCAT data, the
subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT all suggest maintaining the depression at 25 kt.
It should be noted there is considerable uncertainty in the initial
position owing to the poor organization of the system currently.

The relatively shallow nature of the circulation is resulting in an
initial motion of about 255/8, as the depression is being steered
by relatively weak low level trade wind flow. Guidance is in good
agreement that a gradual turn toward due west is expected in a
couple of days, with a turn toward the west-northwest thereafter
along with an increase in speed as the system moves south of
stronger, deep subtropical ridging. There was a slight southward
shift in the consensus guidance for this forecast, so the official
track has been nudged a little to the south as well. Toward the end
of the forecast period, the system should start to move more quickly
toward a weakness that develops in the subtropical ridge north
of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands.

Sea surface temperatures are above 28C along the forecast track of
12E and shear is relatively weak. The main inhibiting factor in the
short term appears to be the poor organization and shape of the
circulation, as well as some dry air impinging on the northern
periphery of the circulation. The guidance suggests gradual
strenghtening, and the official forecast does as well assuming the
depression can overcome the inhibiting factors. The official
forecast splits the difference between the slightly more aggressive
SHIPS guidance and the somewhat less agressive dynamical model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 12.7N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 12.3N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 12.0N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 11.8N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 11.9N 146.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 12.7N 150.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 14.0N 156.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 16.0N 162.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

開梅

我一直沒特別注意由擾動升級到TD最短跟最長的系統紀錄是誰，目前看標題似乎很讓人震驚？應該是我目前聽過發展最快的擾動了。

霧峰追風者

CPHC 命名"Akoni"，後期將進入西太。

711
WTPA43 PHFO 052244
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Akoni Special Discussion Number   7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122019
100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

An ASCAT-C pass from 1843 UTC revealed tropical storm force winds in
the vigorous deep convection blowing up to the east and southeast of
the low-level circulation center. Thus, this special advisory
upgrades TD 12E to Tropical Storm Akoni. The remainder of the
forecast philosophy does not change with this update, however the
intensity forecast was nudged upward in the short term to better
agree with the analyzed current intensity. Akoni remains a very
asymmetric and disorganized system, but is expected to gradually
intensify over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2300Z 12.2N 144.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 12.2N 145.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 12.3N 147.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 12.5N 148.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 12.7N 151.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  08/1800Z 14.1N 156.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  09/1800Z 16.2N 163.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 17.9N 170.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

霧峰追風者

減弱為擾動，展望20%。

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with a
disturbance around 700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Conditions
are only marginally favorable for development of this disturbance
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent