簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-9-17 16:36
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JTWC 17/06Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 170132Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10-15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LUZON WITH
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. THE
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO INVEST 95W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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