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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-24 21:30
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-25 00:03 編輯
IMD判定於24/06Z及24/12Z達到巔峰,達VSCS,強度75節
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/0600Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 08
PSN: N2000 E05930
MOV: W15KT
C: 0980HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 24/1200Z N1954 E05812
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 65 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 24/1800Z N1948 E05654
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/0000Z N1942 E05548
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 25/0600Z N1930 E05448
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 25KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190924/1200Z
TOO: 241355 HRS IST
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20190924/1200Z
TC: HIKAA
NR: 09
PSN: N1948 E05818
MOV: W11KT
C: 0978HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 24/1800Z N1942 E05654
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 60 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 25/0000Z N1936 E05548
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 25/0600Z N1924 E05448
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 30KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 25/1200Z N1912 E05354
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 15KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190924/2100Z
TOO: 242000 HRS IST
JTWC則判定於24/00Z達到巔峰,達C2,強度85節
WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 60.3E.
24SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 14 NM
OBLONG EYE, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) BY PGTW AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T4.8 (85 KTS) BY CIMSS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS TC 03A TRANSITS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE ARABIAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A
WESTERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18. AFTER LANDFALL, EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS TC 03A SHIFTS TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
COURSE AND FRICTION FROM LAND INTERACTION RAPIDLY DETERIORATES THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, TC 03A WILL WEAKEN TO 35 KTS. THERE IS OVERALL
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
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