老農民版夜神月

  氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 05 ( 06 A )
名稱 : Pawan

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 11 月 29 日 00 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 12 月 03 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 12 月 05 日 16 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 12 月 09 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：索馬利亞


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：40 kt ( CS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：997 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
  擾動編號資料  
90A INVEST 191128 1200 2.0N 55.0E IO 15 0


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5

JTWC 28/18Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.6N
56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY A 281130Z
85GHZ SSMI SATELLITE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, AS THE CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL OVER
SOMALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC02/0900Z發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 5.6N 57.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020830Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 57.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020210Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. A
020527Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST (28-29C) VALUES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW, POSSIBLY QUASI-
STATIONARY, POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030900Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

IMD編號ARB 05

ARB/05/2019
Dated: 02.12.2019
Depression formed over SW Arabian Sea & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. To intensify into a CS and move towards Somalia coast during next 72 hours.

t02436

00Z已分別升格06A及深低壓，巔峰皆上望40節。

t02436

改編ARB 05B

(B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 HRS UTC OF 04TH DECEMBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 7.2°N AND
LONGITUDE 56.6°E OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 670 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA
(41494) AND 930 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOSASO (63210). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR
SOME MORE TIME AND THEN RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST DURING
NEXT 03 DAYS.

06Z恢復ARB 05

ARB/05/2019
Dated: 04.12.2019
Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 04th December, 2019 near latitude 7.4°N and longitude 56.6°E over Southwest Arabian Sea, about 650 km south-southeast of Socotra (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 06 hours.

老農民版夜神月

IMD03Z升格氣旋風暴,命名Pawan

FKIN21 VIDP 050304
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191205/0000Z
TC: PAWAN
NR: 08
PSN: N0912 E05624
MOV: WNW05KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 05/0600Z N0918 E05554
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 035 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 05/1200Z N0906 E05506
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 035KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 05/1800Z N0848 E05412
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 035KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 06/0000Z N0830 E05318
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 030KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191205/0900Z
TOO: 050810HRS IST

t02436

00Z登陸索馬利亞，已減弱為DD

SUB: CYCLONIC STORM „PAWAN‟ (PRONOUNCED AS „PAVAN‟) OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
CROSSED SOMALIA COAST AND WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL
SOMALIA
CYCLONIC STORM „PAWAN‟ (PRONOUNCED AS „PAVAN‟) OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
MOVED NEARLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 26 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, CROSSED
SOMALIA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 7.4°N AND LONGITUDE 49.6°E DURING 0200 TO 0300 UTC OF
07TH DECEMBER 2019 AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 60-70 KMPH GUSTING TO
80 KMPH, WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 07TH
DECEMBER, 2019 OVER COASTAL SOMALIA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD NEAR LATITUDE 7.4°N AND
LONGITUDE 49.5°E. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS AND
WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.