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jrchang5|2020-3-11 16:56
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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-3-11 17:06 編輯
JTWC判定11/06Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 21S，預測將移向西澳西北海岸。
WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101551ZMAR2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.2S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.7S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.5S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 116.6E.
11MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVERHEAD.
AN 110616Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CLEARLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON AN 110152Z METOP-C DIRECT ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWS 35 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, PLACING
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EVALUATED AT T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW/KNES), LOWER
THAN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. OVERALL, TC 21S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 21S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. AT THIS POINT,
INCREASING VWS VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH SST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A MARGINAL SYSTEM UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OF
NOTE, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK,
KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101600).//
NNNN
BoM則依然視為熱帶低壓，並不看好後續發展。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 11 March 2020
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 14 March 2020.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
##
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low was located near 15.7S 116.8E at 11am WST Wednesday, about 560km north of Karratha and 750km north northeast of Exmouth. This system is forecast to move south southwest towards the northwest of Western Australia and lie near the far west Pilbara coast late Thursday evening or early Friday morning. This system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone, however squally conditions and heavy rainfall are possible over the far western Pilbara from later on Thursday as the system moves by.
The low is expected to weaken on Friday, however moisture from the low is expected produce areas of rainfall over southwestern WA on the weekend.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.
Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
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