老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 05 月 01 日 16 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 05 月 09 日 05 時
96S INVEST 200501 0600 3.7S 96.8E SHEM 15 0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC03/1500Z將其評級為Low

ABIO10 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/031500Z-031800ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
6.9S 101.4E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031110Z 89GHZ MHS
IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FLARING
CONVECTION. 96S IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(28-30C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.1 AS LOW.//
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC06ZT1.5,CI2.0,但最新的ASCAT風場掃描顯示96S中心附近風速仍然偏弱，且結構十分混亂，JTWC06Z亦判定定強僅為15KT

TPXS10 PGTW 040643

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96S (W OF JAVA)

B. 04/0600Z

C. 6.68S

D. 100.51E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELDS A 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06/0000Z取消TCFA，降評Medium

WTXS21 PGTW 060000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050221ZMAY2020//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 102.4E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
052054Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND
FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. THIS
CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050230).//
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jrchang5

BMKG 07/00Z定強30kts(10分鐘平均)，並預測強度將逐漸減弱。

IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 03:24 UTC 07/05/2020
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 96S

SIKLON TROPIS: BIBIT 96S
Data pada: 07/0000 UTC
Lintang: 8.8LS
Bujur: 97.3BT 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: barat (260 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 15 knots (28 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 420 mil (780 km) barat daya
   Pada +12: 490 mil (910 km) barat daya
   Pada +24: 560 mil (1050 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Tanjung Karang
   Pada  +0: 510 mil (950 km) barat barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 30 knots (55 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1004 hPa
Intensitas: Depression
24 jam Intensitas: Depression

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+12: 07/1200:   8.9LS   95.9BT: 060 (110):    030  (055):           1003:    045  (085)
+24: 08/0000:   9.1LS   94.5BT: 090 (165):    025  (045):           1005:    045  (085)
+36: 08/1200:   9.3LS   93.4BT: 120 (225):    020  (035):           1005:    045  (085)
+48: 09/0000:   9.4LS   92.9BT: 155 (285):    020  (035):           1006:    045  (085)
+60: 09/1200:   9.6LS   92.7BT: 200 (375):    015  (030):           1007:    045  (085)  045  (085)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk: Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat, Lampung Selatan, Lampung Tengah, Lampung Utara, Bangka, Belitung, Lahat, Muara Enim, Musi Banyu Asin, Musi Rawas, Ogan Komering Hilir and Ogan Komering Hulu


KETERANGAN TEKNIS
Informasi lebih lanjut : 021-6546315/18

DAMPAK
Bibit siklon tropis ini dapat memberikan dampak terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa :
- Potensi Hujan dengan intensitas sedang - lebat di wilayah Bengkulu, Sumatera Selatan, dan Lampung.
- Potensi Angin Kencang di Sumatera Barat dan Bengkulu.
- Gelombang laut dengan ketinggian 2.5 - 4 meter di Perairan Bengkulu hingga barat Lampung, Samudra Hindia barat Kep. Nias hingga Lampung, Selat Sunda bagian barat hingga selatan, dan Perairan selatan Banten.


Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 07/0700 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.

jrchang5

JTWC 07/0830Z再降評為Low。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5S 98.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 222
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

其實自從昨日早晨JTWC取消TCFA後,從昨晚到今早的ASCAT風場掃描反而均曾掃到96S系統的西南側及南側有部分區域的30KT左右風旗

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於08/1800Z取消評級

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 95.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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