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17E.Lowell 西行減弱 逐漸消散

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-24 03:07 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z新報定強45KT,中心氣壓1001百帕,並不再上望更高強度
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

Convective banding has improved a little bit since the previous
advisory, but not enough to increase the various satellite intensity
estimates. Lowell's low-level center remains near or just inside the
northern edge of the deepest convection, with the strongest and
most organized thunderstorm activity confined to the eastern and
southern portions of Lowell's circulation. The initial intensity of
45 kt is based on consensus Dvorak classifications of T3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. These
data are consistent with an overnight ASCAT-A pass of about 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 285/08 kt. Lowell lies along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge, and
this is the dominant synoptic-scale steering feature for the next 5
days. As a result, the cyclone is expected to move
west-northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west on
Thursday, with that motion continuing through the weekend and into
early next week. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed
around the previous forecast track, thus requiring no significant
changes to the previous advisory track.

Low-to-moderate northwesterly to northerly vertical wind shear is
forecast to affect Lowell for the next 60 hours or so while the
cyclone hugs the 25- to 26-deg-C sea-surface temperature (SST)
gradient. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast during
that time. Thereafter, the combination of cooler SSTs and increasing
wind shear from the west is expected to induce slow but steady
weakening, with Lowell degenerating into a remnant low by 96 hours.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA,
FSSE and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 20.0N 120.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 20.4N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 20.8N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 21.0N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 21.1N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  26/0000Z 21.2N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 21.1N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  27/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z 21.2N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

143354_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 17E_gefs_latest.png
20200923.1830.goes-17.vis.2km.17E.LOWELL.45kts.1001mb.20.6N.121.6W.pc.jpg 20200923.0957.gw1.89pct89h89v.17E.LOWELL.45kts.1001mb.19.6N.119.4W.76pc.jpg
GOES18502020267TwY0g0.jpg
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-26 03:11 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC判定已於18Z成為殘餘低氣壓
EP, 17, 2020092518, , BEST, 0, 216N, 1298W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032,

20200925.1640.goes-17.vis.2km.17E.LOWELL.35kts.1005mb.21.6N.128.6W.pc.jpg 20200925.1522.f17.91pct91h91v.17E.LOWELL.35kts.1005mb.21.6N.128.6W.100pc.jpg
EP172020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png GOES18502020269wYivGN.jpg
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