WTXS21 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7S 85.6E TO 11.1S 86.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.9S 85.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 84.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040007Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED, BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. INVEST 95S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.//
NNNN
Evolving in a favourable environment, the tropical depression far to the East- North-East of Rodrigues has intensified into a Moderate Tropical Storm. It is expected to continue its movement towards the West-South-West.
