(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.0N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SITTING ON THE EDGE OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 051235Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING, RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ON THE OUTSIDE OF THE CUSP. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY FRONTAL
FEATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL PERSIST
AS A TIGHT TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IS DISSOLVES INTO THE
FRONT TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.0N 137.0E IS EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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千斤頂
