A weak tropical low was located about 470 kilometres east northeast of the Cocos Islands and 540 kilometres west of Christmas Island at 1300 WST on Thursday 7 January. The low is expected to continue drifting south for the next 24 to 48 hours before moving west from later in the weekend. The environment is unfavourable for signficant development to occur - particularly from Sunday when easterly winds aloft will not provide conditions suitable for intensification of the low.
It is expected to pass to the south of the Cocos Islands as it tracks west during the weekend and could increase wind and rainfall at this time. Christmas Island may see increased rainfall in persistent northwesterly flow over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.9S 100.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 082052Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DISPLAYS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. INVEST 98S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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