1111 南瑪都轉熱低解除颱風警報中南部豪雨特報

howard2639 · 2011-8-26 03:33

從今日下午17時之後南瑪都颱風的CDO擴張
目前整個雲系密集且雲渾

而且路徑一直持續在往西前進,而藤原效應發生的機會降低
至於今日0時KMA的500hpa探空圖中發現到
高壓勢力位勢米由5948降到5940目前是5933
但是高壓的邊緣西伸至126E,可能對於14W及15W的方向受到影響

而EC三時的預測更是令人訝異~
預測未來會北北西行至呂宋島後北轉之後一路到台灣東南方海面又朝北北西移動撞上台灣

最後貼個JMA的五日圖吧~
JMA第五日31號當天三時颱風位在24.7N,123.0E
台灣北部近海約150km左右
JMA五日預測圖

此為用GOOGLE EARTH所量出31日預測中心
颱風中心與台北連線的公里數約150km

一切還是繼續追下去,這才是學習的精神!!!

ewan0201 · 2011-8-26 03:47

TY 1111 (NANMADOL)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 25 August 2011

<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°25'(16.4°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

越來越逼近強颱了~~
可是已經越來越靠近呂宋島了
增強空間還有嗎?