(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N
159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE
INITIAL POSITION OF INVEST 97W HAS BEEN RELOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
EAST FROM THE 0000Z STARTING POINT. THE INITIAL 0000Z POSITION WAS
PLACED ON A BROAD, EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH A CURVED BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE SWATH ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEWLY CENTERED POSITION OF
INVEST 97W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVEST LIES IN A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM BEING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), MODERATE
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH THE SHEAR IS MOSTLY ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CIRC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE TUTT, AND 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL DIRECTION BUT NOT INTENSIFICATION OF 97W.
AS IS TYPICAL, GFS IS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT AS IT
DEVELOPS THE INVEST INTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE OF A 72 HOUR DEVELOPMENT CYCLE BEFORE
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE POSITIONING
RELATIVE TO THE TUTT, THE GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED HOWEVER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
