TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 24N 147E NORTH SLOWLY.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.2N
145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 052024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A 060028Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLANK OF TS
06W AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS OF 15-
20KTS EXIST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TURN POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, WHILE STEADILY
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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