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jwpk9899

N AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1S 178.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A COMPACT
(APPROXIMATELY 225 NM DIAMETER) AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD OVER THE FIJIAN ISLAND OF VANUA LEVU. A 060500Z SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM NFFN REPORTS WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS. A 060412Z
SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN ANALYSIS OF SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE MONSOON SURGE THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN AUSTRALIA SEVERAL DAYS
AGO, HELPING TO FORM TC 10P (JASMINE), IS NOW NORTH OF FIJI AND MAY
BE AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS INCIPIENT LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT AREA OF AN
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
A FAVORABLE 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CURRENT DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS HAVING DIFFICULTY INITIALIZING THIS SMALL AREA AND IS FOCUSING ON
A BAROCLINIC CIRCULATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

MEDIUM!!

jwpk9899

真快阿  4小時前剛MEDIUM  現在TCFA了

jwpk9899

4個小時後.......11P誕生了= =(深怕回了太多帖了)

frintezza

真快... 擾動生成12小時便增強成TD, 再過12小時便命名了
不過, 來的快, 去的也快, 它很快便會被西風切死...

25044

『奇怪，NRL怎麼找不到11P（11F）』
依老J資訊，目前它的強度45kts（顛峰強度曾到55kts），
而FMS的觀測是50kts，雖然兩個單位觀測強度不同，但是
都有一個共同點，就是11P會一路減弱，並且會非常快速的
減弱，老J預估在過24小時此TS就會變TD了！
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以上為本人的整理
  

frintezza

JTWC已出Final Warning

080300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AT
37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND IS
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CYCLONE IS NOW DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN
THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS, TC
11P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

風切非常強, 有40-50knots, 預料12小時內消散

25044

應該快消散了吧！

雲團亂成一片，雖然老J說強度還有35kts，還是TS，
但是看起來完全不像颱風，加上風切又強，它應該再
過沒多久就會消散了！