【澳洲】[35kts]17S LUA max:95kt 強度快速減弱！ JTWC:FW!!

mustang · 2012-3-9 11:28

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-3-18 09:04 編輯

(封面)

frintezza · 2012-3-9 12:17

LOW了
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 111.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 081630Z OSCAT PASS.
ADDITIONALLY, A 082140Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTION
BANDING SPIRALING TOWARD THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

EC也有反應~

mustang · 2012-3-12 19:48

本帖最後由 mustang 於 2012-3-12 19:49 編輯

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 114.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 112158Z CORIOLIS IMAGE DEPICTED STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW AND CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 120528Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.Medium!