Typhoon

目前EC持續預測93W將會往台灣地區附近靠進同時強度也會持續發展增強,
因此將會是下週天氣轉化的重要關鍵點之ㄧ,
:D

HKWCFC網主

93W對流活躍
JTWC--------LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 131.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. A 252306Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS AN UNORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
STRUCTURE. THE LLCC EXISTS AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR SHOW AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH 1008 MB MSLP AND A
STEADY 24-HOUR PRESSURE TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH MODERATE SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
LLCC AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ktf

93w現在就是多看多等而已,沒什麼好說的,主因範圍廣大
數值非常難報,只要出現多LLCC整個移動就有很大偏差
除非有非常強勢的中心建立起來,否則現在數值沒什麼參考價值

這種系統是數值最難預測的

h981113

評價升級MEDIUM
的確有機會增強 不過現在中央氣象局還是給他為一般低壓(1006hpa)

jwpk9899

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 131.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHWEST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SLOWLY COALESCING AROUND A BROAD UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260022Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC
HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS
LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
MOVING TOWARDS AN AXIS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF GUAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE EASTERLY OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS LLCC AS IT TRACKS
IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, WARM SSTS, AND INCREASING OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

MEDIUM囉 今晚到明天或許有機會TCFA哦

便當S.Denny

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 131.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHWEST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SLOWLY COALESCING AROUND A BROAD UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260022Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC
HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS
LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
MOVING TOWARDS AN AXIS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF GUAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE EASTERLY OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS LLCC AS IT TRACKS
IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, WARM SSTS, AND INCREASING OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


93W升MEDIUM囉~~

HKWCFC網主

93W附近垂直風微弱，高空輻散良好，海水都足夠30度。
組織轉好，開始有螺旋性，發展可期

龍王

氣象預報說他會沿著台灣東部海面上的說