簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2012-8-18 09:52
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N
125.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH
OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP, PERSISTENT
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. A 171814Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 171457Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO TAKE FORM WITH 20-25
KNOT WIND BARBS 60 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC WITH
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, BETTER EVIDENCE OF A LLCC, AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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