mydeardude

95W 已升為MEDIUM



(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  
113.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED, BROADLY DEFINED  
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER  
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE  
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).  
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MINIMAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW. A FEW  
NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM BUT HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS AS  
TO THE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. A RECENT ASCAT PASS  
INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH  
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA  
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING  
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO  
MEDIUM.

mydeardude

香港天文台 (16:30, 30/09/2012):

另一方面，一個低壓區正影響南海中部，並預料會在未來一兩日發展為熱帶氣旋。

全新字眼。很少在天氣概況會這樣提及, 可見天文台頗重視95W。:)

桑達

他也TCFA了 不過因該是94W先命名 渦度泛紅〜

950233

幫桑達補圖~

94和95雙雙GW和TCFA囉~不過95未來發展令人堪憂= =或許生命短暫..

mydeardude

TCFA報文中提及1. LLCC情況在季風槽內快速改善2.深層對流在LLCC上鞏固3.高空風場分析顯示系統身處低風切環境4.水汽動態圖顯示赤向流出改善，並且開始發展極向流出通道5. ASCAT掃描顯示中心附近持續風速約15-20節，西北象限風速較強  

frintezza

HKO升了TD, 這應該是目前唯一的路徑圖

移動緩慢, 在南海中部徘徊, 變數還很大, 看看就好

jwpk9899

升格為21W  預計未來將通過海南島南方海域 趨向越南(JTWC路徑)
強度暫時看好到55kt

桑達

升格為21W 強度上看55KTS 他往越南走......