簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-6-7 14:20
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似乎MEDIUM好一段時間了 沒人要發~~
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 070121Z METOP-A 89H IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND NO DISCERNIBLE CENTER. A 070122Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A 07/00Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATES WINDS 240/07 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 36) AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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