簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-7-14 09:41
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 134.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
131449Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THIS TROUGHING, WITH THE MAXIMUM TURNING
LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF PALAU. WINDS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS, HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH LIGHT (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE NORTH. A TIME SERIES OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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