06E.Flossie 對流耗盡持續西行＊

krichard2011 · 2013-7-21 20:24

  熱帶風暴
編號  : 06E ( 2013 )
名稱  : Flossie

  基本資料
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 07 月 21 日
命名日期       : 2013 年 07 月 25 日
消散日期       : 2013 年 07 月 30 日
登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：  60 kts  ( TS )
   海平面最低氣壓　　　　  ： 994 百帕

  過去路徑圖
  討論帖圖片

98E.INVEST.20kts-NAmb-10.4N-104.0W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

SHYUDOL · 2013-7-25 09:50

從TCFA到升格06E都沒人理他先補個TCFA的報文+圖片~
WTPN21 PHNC 241700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 118.0W TO 15.1N 125.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241325Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 118.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
117.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 118.8W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241325 SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS FRAGMENTED, BUT QUICKLY DEVELOPING,
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ACROSS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT
BARBS WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251700Z.//
NNNN

jwpk9899 · 2013-7-25 09:52

升格06E 這隻有可能就是GFS預測的襲擊夏威夷的那個TC優
06E.SIX.30kts.1005mb.15N.121.5W

SWW · 2013-7-27 02:33

風場掃描出爐~
西南象限的風特別小O_O

不過從雲圖來看結構似乎慢慢轉好中
而且預測路徑是直奔夏威夷大島(跟前陣子蘇力預測直撲北部的氣氛好像)
如果到時候颱風眼清晰說不定火山上的天文台可以抽空看個星星XD

millerkit31 · 2013-7-27 04:43

從GOES West - Pacific Tropical Sector - IR Image看到，位於東太的06e暫時仍未開眼,強度一直停留在熱帶風暴的水平；其東南象限的雲團，驟眼看好像有另一低壓中心似的。事實上，06e現在尚未行到西經140度,但已經上到北緯近18度，隨著他的慢慢北上，海水溫度將逐步下降，加上中太平洋全年基本都有高壓勢力盤踞，下沉空氣盛行，對於以上升氣流為主的熱帶氣旋甚為不利，故此，06e能否維持到強度到夏威夷也是未知數；即使過了,06e也應該逐漸步向衰亡。
不過，我倒是想問過去有否颱風試過成功跨過換日線，到達西太平洋呢？好想知道!!

krichard2011 · 2013-7-27 18:24

似乎挺少人在關注他
從多頻掃描中大致可看出底層風眼已經建立得差不多了
惟前方有大量乾空氣擾發展
否則這個熱帶系統可能早就很強了
不過目前結構不錯
只要能挺過乾空氣說不定能挑戰個Cat.1

马鞍二世 · 2013-7-28 07:11

WTPA21 PHFO 272035
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR FLOSSIE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 141.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE  35SE  25SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 141.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 143.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  25SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  25SE  25SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 150.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  25SE  25SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 153.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 141.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
进入中太，减弱为45节，干空气持续影响。预料将以Ts下线登陆夏威夷