簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2013-9-20 01:03
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TCFA!
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING. A 191136Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT HAVE NOT YET FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC. THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATES WEAKER WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSING OFF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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