18E.Sonia 中心登陸快速減弱＊

t02436 · 2013-10-31 01:58

  熱帶風暴
編號：18 E
名稱：SONIA

  基本資料
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 31 日 01 時
命名日期       : 2013 年 11 月 03 日 16 時
消散日期　：2013 年 11 月 04 日 23 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥錫那羅亞
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC)：   40  kts
海平面最低氣壓　　：1003 百帕
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
97E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-12.5N-107.5W

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風暴衛星影像

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436 · 2013-10-31 02:04

48Hr:30%
5Days:60%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMINGWITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE COAST OFMEXICO ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THELOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

jwpk9899 · 2013-11-1 05:44

發布TCFA

krichard2011 · 2013-11-1 16:47

升格18E 不過強度只預測到TS左右

ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP182013
0900 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH