03A 打轉登陸釀百死災情!＊

t02436 · 2013-11-5 23:13

熱帶風暴/深低壓
編號：03A
名稱：無

基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 11 月 05 日 23  時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 11 月 13 日 17  時
　登陸地點　　：索馬利亞努加爾州
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
印度氣象局(IMD)： 30  kts
美國海軍 (JTWC)： 40  kts
海平面最低氣壓  ：993 百帕

  過去路徑圖

討論帖圖片
90A.INVEST.15kts-996mb-3.2N-70.2E

以上資料來自 : IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011 · 2013-11-6 19:09

似乎沒有什麼人在關心這裡的樣子 = =
來關心一下它吧
90A的螺旋性已經越來越明顯了
對流也有報出來的跡象
環境方面也不錯垂直風切較小
幅散還可以不過低層幅合倒是要加強
JTWC也評級Low了

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 67.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 535 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A RECENT 060543Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS FAIRLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT AS BROADLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM BUT AT VARYING
INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS (PAST TAU 72), AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Meow · 2013-11-8 19:39

IMD 升格這低壓區為低壓 ARB 01。

IMD upgraded the well-marked low pressure area to Depression ARB 01.

Time of issue: 1430 hours IST Dated: 08-11-2013
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2013/01
Sub: Depression over southwest Arabian Sea.

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 08thth November 2013 near latitude 8.00N and longitude 56.50E, about 680 km east-southheast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 570 km southeast of Socotra Island and 1830 km west-southwest of Minicoy. The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. It would move west-northwestwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 8.00 0 N and 10.00N by 10thth November evening.

Under the influence of this system, no adverse weather would occur over India.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 08thth November, 2013.

Meow · 2013-11-8 20:28

JTWC 發佈 TCFA，今天早上還只是 Low 而已，下午 Medium，晚上就 High 了。

一般 JTWC 在北印度洋、南半球發佈了 TCFA 就代表風速達 30 節。

WTIO21 PGTW 081200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 57.0E TO 7.2N 51.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
56.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
56.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 080943Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED
AS DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING ALONG THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH BROADLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS RELAXED TO NOW LOW (05-10 KNOTS) LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091200Z.//
NNNN