t02436

MFR重新提升為強烈熱帶風暴
將逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋

JTWC則維持25Kts

ZCZC 461
WTIO30 FMEE 190630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/6/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 52.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO
DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 310 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/19 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/20 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/01/20 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/01/21 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/01/21 18 UTC: 32.6 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/22 06 UTC: 35.2 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/23 06 UTC: 42.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CHEDZA'S CURRENT PATTERN LOOKS UNCONVENTIONAL THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
NOT ADAPTED.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP AND HAS DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
AND WITH FAVOURABLE GOOD UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
CHEDZA IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TOWARDS A TRANSIENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, TODAY, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS TO INCREASE AND THE
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL TO DECREASE. ON TUESDAY, THE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.=
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