t02436

基本資料   
編號　　　　：91 S
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 02 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 05 日 14 時
91S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.19.3S.40.1E

t02436

JTWC昨天06Z評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S 42.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 243 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
030243Z SSMIS REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 43.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031547Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS WEAK FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.