11S.Fundi 觸陸後重新增強轉化溫氣

t02436 · 2015-2-5 15:50

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-2-9 13:24 編輯

  中度熱帶風暴
編號：09-20142015 ( 11 S )
名稱：Fundi

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 05 日 15 時
　命名日期　　：2015 年 02 月 06 日 20 時
　轉化日期　　：2015 年 02 月 09 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
法國氣象局 (MFR)：45 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：45 kt  ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓　：988 百帕

  討論帖圖片
92S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.20.4S.37.5E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-2-6 00:45

MFR編號第九號擾動區
上望60KT
路徑則是馬達加斯加西部外海趨向高緯

ZCZC 723
WTIO30 FMEE 051247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9
2.A POSITION 2015/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/06 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/02/06 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/02/07 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/07 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/08 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/08 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.0
SINCE LAST NIGHT, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FLARED UP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE MONSOON TRO
UGH AS A LOW HAS DEVELOPED. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS ILL DEFINED AND ELONGATED CURRENTLY AS
THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT HOWEVER AN I
MPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE WINDS STRUCTU
RE IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH 05-10 KT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT WI
NDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE (WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO THE SOUTH AN
D A SLIGHT WESTERLY CONSTRAINT) BUT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS THE
REFORE EXPECTED ON A QUASI CLIMATOLOGICAL CURVE UP TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED DETERIORATION
OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARDS OR EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS AFTER A POLEWARDS TURN SA
TURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IT IS WORTHILY TO NOTE THAT A LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR B
ETWEEN MORONDAVA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGACAR (SUGGEST BY GFS) IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
A PREVIOUS LOW HAS DUMPED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CO
ASTS OF MADAGASCAR (MORE THAN 400 MM RECORDED IN 4 DAYS AT MAINTIRANO, 126 MM IN 24 HOURS AT 06Z T
ODAY RECORDED AT MOROMBE) DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS NEW EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER WATER SATU
RATED SOILS ... THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD EVEN
T. THE INHABITANTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINES OF MADAGASCAR (FROM CAP SAINT-ANDRE
TO CAP SAINTE-MARIE) ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SITUATION.
NNNN

t02436 · 2015-2-6 17:28

JTWC評級三級跳
05-18Z Low
06-01Z Medium
09Z發布TCFA

MFR升格熱帶低壓
一樣上望60KT

ZCZC 857
WTIO30 FMEE 060634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2015/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 41.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/06 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/07 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/07 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/08 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/08 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/09 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/10 06 UTC: 32.4 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/02/11 06 UTC: 37.2 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
SINCE LAST NIGHT, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM NR09, ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 05/1840Z SHOW A VERY DYSSIMETRIC LOW LEVEL WINDS
FIELD PATTERN, WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
MONSOON FLOW, AND MODERATE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
(10/15 KT AT THE MET STATION OF EUROPA).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 30AOC SST. UP TO 25S, THE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION (WEAK UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE
EASTWARD). TOMORROW, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AND ON SUNDAY, THE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BUILT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
AN IRREGULAR INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO FORECAST UP TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SLOW DOWN TODAY AND TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD, AND
THEN POLEWARD SATURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A
LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY, BUT IS LESS AND LESS FORECASTED.
ANOTHER SPELL OF HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO HIT THE WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THIS WEEK, OVER WATER SATURATED SOILS.=
NNNN

t02436 · 2015-2-7 00:04

MFR 12Z命名Fundi

將擦邊馬達加斯加島西南部海岸

ZCZC 906
WTIO30 FMEE 061304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FUNDI)
2.A POSITION 2015/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/02/07 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/02/07 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/02/08 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/02/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/02/09 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/02/09 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/10 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/02/11 12 UTC: 39.4 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED FUNSI AT 12Z BY THE MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.
THE SYSTEM CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION STRENGTHENING AND WRAPPING CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
THE MET STATION AT MOROMBE RECORDED 995.5HPA (CORRECTED FROM THE
BAROMETRIC TIDE) AT 11Z.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 30AOC SST. UP TO 25S, THE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH, AND IT DROPS REGULARLY BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.
TODAY, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION (WEAK UPPER LEVELS WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE
EASTWARD). TOMORROW, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. AND ON SUNDAY, THE NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BUILT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
AN INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO FORECAST UP TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD, AND
THEN POLEWARD SATURDAY ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.=
NNNN