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基本資料   
編號　　　　：96 S
擾動編號日期：2015 年 02 月 13 日 13 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 02 月 17 日 11 時

96S.INVEST.20kts.1004mb-12.3S-103.6E

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ABIO10 PGTW 131100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131100Z-131800ZFEB2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 104.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 130920Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE 600-NM DIAMETER SYSTEM
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND A BROAD CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED AWAY FROM
THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST. CONSEQUENTLY, DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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