t02436

  熱帶氣旋│ 四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：14-20142015 ( 21 S / 19 U)
名稱：Ikola


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 02 日 06 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 06 日 02 時
轉化日期　　：2015 年 04 月 08 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 /海平面最低氣壓
    法國氣象局 (MFR)： 70  kt ( T.C. )
    澳洲氣象局 (BoM)： 90  kt ( CAT.4 )-註:2015.04.06 18Z UTC轉交BoM發報
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：105 kt ( CAT.3 )
    海平面最低氣壓　 ：958 百帕

   討論帖圖片   
93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.2S.87E


以上資料來自：MFR、BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC 04-02 18Z評級Low

   (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 87.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 021409Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT)
VWS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

BoM三日展望

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:18 pm WST on Friday 3 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Monday 6 April 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak tropical low lies near 8S 88E and is moving slowly towards the
southeast. This system is expected to move into the Western Region early next
week but conditions are only slightly favourable for development into a
tropical cyclone and any development is expected to be short-lived.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Very Low   
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Low        


There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
to develop in the next three days.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

krichard2011

MFR稍早升格 TD 編號 14-20142015
目前上看STS

t02436

MFR 06Z 編號熱帶低壓14號

補充報文、路徑圖、GFS預測。

WTIO30 FMEE 050643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 87.2 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/05 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/06 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/07 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 93.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 100.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/04/10 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 105.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED AND RECENTLY THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPS
MORE THAN 0.5AO. FT IS HOWEVER RETAINED AT 2.0+ BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF THE LAST 3 HOURS AND CONSTRAINT. THE INTENSITY OF THIS ADVISORY IS
BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER AND OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF
20S. THIS WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST).
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=

ZCZC 811
WTIO30 FMEE 051300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 91.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 95.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 97.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 104.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS TODAY IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL DEPICT
GOOD LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 30 KT.
OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM MAY RESUME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
CYCLE OF CONVECTION.
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY: THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF 20S. THIS
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
SOME LONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXIST FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST). THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST NWP OUTPUTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=
NNNN

Meow

MFR 已先命名 Ikola，JTWC 則在之後不久跳過 TCFA 直接編號 21S。

krichard2011

這發展似乎超出預期
除了風眼疑似建立起來 甚至有進一步加強CDO得跡象
MFR仍暫只預測到顛峰達到熱帶氣旋下限
不過以現在的型態 有可能會有更高的評價

Meow

按這移速，下一報就是 BoM 負責了，應該會直接評價三級甚至四級的強烈熱帶氣旋。

t02436

MFR 12Z 給出70KT評價
升格熱帶氣旋
18Z 轉交BoM發報

** WTIO30 FMEE 061306 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  14  (IKOLA)

2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 90.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY    DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 95.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, IKOLA CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH AN
ELONGATED EYE PATTERN. THE LAST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
A STOP IN THIS RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND.

THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF A MID TO HIGH LEVELS TROUGH, AND IS
TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY.
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD IS ENDING. ACTUALLY,  THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR
IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
OVER THIS PATH, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IKOLA SHOULD
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY THE TCWC PERTH.=

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