t02436

基本資料   
編號　　　　：90 E
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 22 日 20 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 05 月 25 日 01 時

90E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.6N.135.5W

NHC:20%
2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while the low moves slowly northwestward.  After that time,
development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

CX723-A330

這緯度對東太中太的擾動來說不尋常地低
通常這區的擾動是在北緯10度或以上的
這擾所在之處緯度低，風切也小
說不定能成為東太或中太首旋

t02436

NHC升Medium

2. An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii has become a little better defined today.
Development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while the low remains stationary.  After that time, development
appears less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

數值強度預測


路徑初期向北移動

t02436

美國海軍發布TCFA



NHC升High
發展機率70%

1. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system located about 1600 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is currently not well
defined.  Some development of this system is possible during the
next day or two, and it has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly northward.  Thereafter, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

t02436

NHC大幅調降發展機率至30%系統即將進入CPHC責任區

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to become less
defined. The associated shower activity also remains limited,
and the chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone
development is decreasing. The disturbance is moving slowly
westward and could cross into the Central Pacific basin later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

美國海軍取消TCFA




對流大幅消散
數值均不再看好發展