01E.Andres 首颶首MH 環境轉差逐漸減弱

t02436 · 2015-5-27 20:20

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-6-6 09:18 編輯

  四級颶風
編號：01 E
名稱：Andres

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 27 日 19 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 05 月 28 日 22 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 06 月 05 日 23 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速：125  kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：938 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92E.INVEST.20kts-1008mb-8.8N-102.8W

NHC:60%
1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-5-28 00:45

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 271430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 103.7W TO 11.9N 111.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
104.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N 104.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270847Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 270425Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, WHICH ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281430Z.//
NNNN

t02436 · 2015-5-28 17:06

NHC升格01E
初報上望80節

Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 280842
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection has become increasingly consolidated and organized
in association with an area of low pressure located well to the
southwest of the coast of Mexico.  Enough convective banding has
formed to yield Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and a 0459 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum
winds near 30 kt.  The ASCAT data also showed that a center of
circulation appeared sufficiently well defined, allowing the
designation of the low as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time.

The depression lies to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific, and
its initial motion is 295/13 kt.  Global model fields show that the
ridge should remain firmly in place, especially to the northwest of
the depression, during the next several days.  This should force the
cyclone to slow down considerably and move north-northwestward from
days 2 through 5.  There is good agreement among the track models
during the first 3 days of the forecast.  By days 4 and 5, however,
there is more uncertainty with the GFDL and HWRF models showing a
northward motion while the GFS and ECMWF show a northwestward
motion.  The NHC track forecast currently lies closest to the GFS
model and the TVCE multi-model consensus.  Regardless of the exact
track, the cyclone is expected to stay well to the southwest of
Mexico during the entire forecast period.

Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
should support intensification during the next 3 days or so.  Of the
intensity guidance, the SHIPS model is the most aggressive, making
the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours with a peak intensity near 90 kt
in 2-3 days.  The official intensity forecast isn't quite that
aggressive, but it does lie slightly above the ICON intensity
consensus.  Rapid intensification isn't out of the question, and in
fact the RI guidance suggests that it may be likely during the next
24 hours.  In light of that, some upward adjustment to the official
forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories.  Weakening should
begin by day 4 once the cyclone reaches colder water.

Note that beginning this year, Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories,
Discussions, and Updates for the eastern North Pacific will now use
different time zones depending on the cyclone's current location, as
follows:

Central Time:  east of 106.0W
Mountain Time: 106.0W to 114.9W
Pacific Time:  115.0W westward

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W 60 KT  70 MPH
48H  30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 70 KT  80 MPH
72H  31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 80 KT  90 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 70 KT  80 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

風場掃描掃出30節

krichard2011 · 2015-5-28 22:39

NHC 升格TS 並且命名為 Andres
目前暫上看80KT

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 281418
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP012015
1500 UTC THU MAY 28 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE 0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 111.3W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Meow · 2015-5-29 00:02

新預報員：歐巴馬

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 281453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius.  The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast.  Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward.  After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion.  The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.

Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT  70 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT  80 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT  90 MPH
72H  31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT  90 MPH
96H  01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)