02E.Blanca 二度實測不佳中心登陸

t02436 · 2015-5-31 11:26

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-6-11 19:41 編輯

  四級颶風
編號：02 E
名稱：Blanca

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 31 日 05 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 06 月 01 日 23 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 06 月 11 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥南下加利福尼亞州

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速：120  kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：943 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
93E.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-11.7N-101.7W

NHC:30%
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, have increased and become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres
are likely to inhibit the development of this low for the next
couple of days. However, these winds should weaken by Monday, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as
this system drifts generally northwestward and then becomes nearly
stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-6-1 09:14

NHC 22Z升格02E
短期內不看好命名

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312209
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep
convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low
pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Therefore the
system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being
initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is 300/05.  The depression is located
in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short
term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to
northwestward through Monday.  In 36-48 hours, a mid-level
ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward
motion for a day or so.  After that time, global models show
stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the
south-central United States, which should result in a faster
west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the
forecast period.

Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant
intensification during the next day or two.  After that time, the
shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease
substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist
environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C.  These
factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps
greater than what is currently forecast.  The NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the
most strengthening of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W 35 KT  40 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W 45 KT  50 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W 60 KT  70 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W 75 KT  85 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

t02436 · 2015-6-1 23:48

NHC 15Z 命名Blanca
初報巔峰上望110節

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011452
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP022015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The convective pattern of the cyclone features a developing central
dense overcast and an expansive convective band to the east and
southeast of the center.  Based on the latest Dvorak classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm
Blanca on this advisory.  The SHIPS model and satellite analysis
from UW-CIMSS show about 20 kt of shear currently affecting Blanca.
However, the models show the shear quickly relaxing during the next
12 to 24 hours, which should allow Blanca to take advantage of an
otherwise favorable environment.  As a result, steady if not rapid
intensification is expected to begin soon.  In fact, the SHIPS RI
index shows a 74 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24
hours.  The official forecast follows this trend and shows a quicker
rate of intensification than the previous one through 48 hours.
Additional strengthening is expected later in the forecast period.
The new NHC forecast is close to the more aggressive SHIPS model and
is well above the IVCN intensity consensus.

Microwave imagery from AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 at 0743Z and from the GPM
satellite at 1031Z were helpful in establishing the initial
position, which is just a little to the right of the previous
advisory.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  A slow
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected today,
followed by a slow erratic motion through 72 hours as the steering
flow weakens.  Late in the period, a ridge will amplify over
northern Mexico which should result in a steadier motion toward the
northwest at days 4 and 5.  The new NHC track is a little to the
right of the previous one after an adjustment toward the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus.

Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico through the forecast period.  However, some rainbands on
the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the
coast during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.5N 104.1W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 104.6W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 13.8N 104.9W 65 KT  75 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 13.6N 105.1W 75 KT  85 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 15.5N 107.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

蜜露 · 2015-6-2 08:42

GFS很看好發展.

所處高OHC 且會滯留打轉..

這隻上望比安德烈斯更強烈.

GFS EC...等等上望. 數值越高  通常越強.

但也有上望數值不高的強颱.

Marica  安德烈斯  紅霞  Eunice

上望很強的 Pam  白海豚  梅莎  現在的布蘭卡

像白海豚就是例子. 當初上望可能是北半球風王.
現在來看. 白海豚只能算是C5 最弱

Pam 上望一度866hPa ... 但也才145kts 中等C5

所以有時候. 數值雖然很高.但還是看看就好