|
|
還沒死，回到Medium。
ABIO10 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/140200Z-141800ZJUN2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.7N
59.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A LINE OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
REMNANTS OF 01A HAS GRADUALLY MOVED CLOSER TO THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING
A 132122Z AMSR 36 GHZ PASS, HAS REVEALED A GENERALLY DISORGANIZED
LLCC WITH MOSTLY LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
SOMALI JET. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS AN ERRATIC, SLOW TRACK
MOTION WITH A FORECAST WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT NATURE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT LLCC,THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN |
|
