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本來JTWC評價風速30節，修正報改為35節。
WTPS31 PGTW 301500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJUN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 6.5S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 7.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 8.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 8.9S 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.2S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.1S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.3S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 159.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP ALONG WITH SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 25P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS VWS INCREASES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE STR, DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. LAND INTERACTION AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOLOMON
ISLAND WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
300151ZJUN2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
300200). JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: CHANGED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM
30 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS.//
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