2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave and a weak area of
low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression later this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2015
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 98.4W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 100.5W
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional
satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold
cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the
eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly
over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the
initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should
peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a
maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the
SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down
through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression
by day 5.
The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores
continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly
mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending
westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in
agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48
and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster
west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast
to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC
forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast
beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and
TVCE consensus models.
The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT
overpasses.
提升卡
千斤頂
