簽到天數: 3160 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-8-13 13:21 編輯
jtwc升評為MEDIUM
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 159.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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