0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：11 E
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 14 日 08 時
升格熱低日期：2015 年 08 月 16 日 11 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 08 月 19 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：30  kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
94E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.11.6N.104.9W


NHC:60%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, have been increasing in coverage since yesterday
but remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
a tropical cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

NHC升格11E
預計12小時內命名
兩天後海域海溫將低於26度
強度只上望35節

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
900 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

The last few hours of visible imagery indicated that the large low
pressure area located well to the south-southwest of the Baja
California peninsula had developed a sufficiently well-defined
center of circulation, even if the overall circulation itself was
still somewhat elongated.  Also, deep convection has been forming
closer to this center over the past few hours, and Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt, respectively.
Advisories have therefore been initiated, and the initial intensity
estimate is 30 kt.

Since the center has just recently become more apparent, the
initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/10 kt.  The depression
is being steered west-northwestward between a mid- to upper-level
low located to its southwest near 17N125W and a large mid-level
high centered over the southwestern United States.  This pattern is
expected to cause the cyclone to accelerate northwestward within
the next 12 hours and continue that trajectory through day 4.  The
cross-track spread among the track models is small, but there are
some speed differences.  For example, the ECMWF is the fastest model
while the HWRF and GFDL are two of the slowest.  The official track
forecast is a little faster than the TVCE model consensus and leans
closer toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The depression only has another 24-36 hours before it reaches sea
surface temperatures colder than 26 degrees Celsius.  In addition,
water vapor imagery shows a large area of mid-/upper-level dry air
impinging on the southwestern side of the circulation.  Given the
system's large and asymmetric appearance, and the short window of
favorable conditions, significant strengthening is not likely, and
the official forecast shows the depression just reaching tropical
storm intensity within the next day or so.  This forecast most
closely follows the intensity consensus.  The cyclone should become
a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 16.8N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 19.8N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 23.7N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  19/0000Z 26.4N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  20/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg