KINGRIC

  四級颶風  
編號：12 E
名稱：Ignacio


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 21 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 08 月 26 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 09 月 06 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)         ： 80   kt ( CAT.1 )
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：125  kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：942 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
95E.INVEST.20kts-NAmb-12.5N-123.7W




NHC:20%

1. A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000
miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the weekend while the disturbance moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

0908morakot

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：95 E
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 21 日 20 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 08 月 00 日 00 時
95E.INVEST.20kts-NAmb-12.5N-123.7W


NHC:20%

1. A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000
miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula is associated with
a tropical wave.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the weekend while the disturbance moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

...

NHC評價HIGH 發出TCFA

可能不久後就會編號12E

t02436

NHC稍早升格12E
巔峰上望60節
預測後期將移向夏威夷群島附近

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250243
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015
800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows deep convection associated with
the area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California has become better organized and increased in
coverage since yesterday.  Additionally, an 1852 UTC ASCAT-B
scatterometer overpass indicated that the surface circulation has
become sufficiently well defined.  Accordingly, advisories are being
initiated on the twelfth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern
Pacific hurricane season.  Dvorak intensity estimates support an
initial intensity of 30 kt.  The cyclone is expected to traverse
warm sea surface temperatures and move within a marginally conducive
thermodynamic environment during the entire forecast period,
resulting in only gradual intensification.  Around day 4, the
large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model show increasing
southwesterly shear which should induce a weakening trend and this
is also reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be at 270/3 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge extending westward to the north of the cyclone
from northern Mexico should influence a generally westward motion
during the next couple of days.  Beyond the 48 hour period, global
and hurricane models indicate a deep-layer trough weakening the
ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands causing the
depression to turn toward the west-northwest and continuing in this
direction through day 5.  The NHC forecast is based on a blend of
the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) and the TVCX multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 13.1N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 13.0N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 12.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 12.8N 133.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 13.2N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 139.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 16.6N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 17.8N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

正宜27

已命名為IGNACIOjtwc強度上望75kts

KINGRIC

底層很不錯稍早已升格1級颶風
後期上看100KT 環境算是很不錯
唯一的隱憂是前方的乾空氣 但由於接上跨赤道氣流
目前乾空氣的問題 應該還不會太大 個人仍是看好後期之發展




NIT  27/0300Z 12.2N 137.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 12.8N 138.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 13.8N 140.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 14.6N 142.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 15.4N 144.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  30/0000Z 16.7N 147.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  31/0000Z 18.1N 150.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

KINGRIC

稍早最新的底層來看的話他的底層結構
仍是有很大的進步空間
未來應該還需要一些時間來做整合的動作
但他目前所在的的區域 環境也不差
與隔壁的Jimena類似 皆有不錯的輻散場也都接上了跨赤道氣流
未來強度發展上面應該也不至於太差




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 12.9N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  28/0600Z 13.6N 142.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  28/1800Z 14.5N 144.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 15.3N 145.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 16.1N 147.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  30/1800Z 17.5N 149.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  31/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

KINGRIC

這隻風眼也開了 短期之內附近的環境也都相當不錯
在接近夏威夷前 仍有機會達到不錯的強度
但受限於隨這接近夏威夷一帶時 風切逐漸增大
對於強度發展會逐漸受到限制 未來這一兩天
應該將是這個颶風能達到多強的關鍵
另外GFS最近幾報也有報出可能會變成Kilo的跟班
一起衝進西北太平洋 不過這點仍有待觀察
台灣時間明天凌晨2時 美國也會派出颶風獵人飛入Ignacio裡面實測



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 15.7N 146.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 16.3N 147.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 17.3N 148.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 18.2N 149.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  31/0600Z 19.1N 151.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  01/0600Z 21.2N 153.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  02/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 25.5N 159.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD