16E 短暫升格中心登陸

0908morakot · 2015-9-18 20:15

本帖最後由 0908morakot 於 2015-9-23 15:14 編輯

  熱帶低壓
編號：16 E
名稱：無

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 18 日 20 時
升格低壓日期：2015 年 09 月 21 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 09 月 22 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥下加利福尼亞半島

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速：30  kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91E.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.5N.108.5W

NHC:30%

1. An elongated surface trough extends several hundred miles off the
west-central coast of Mexico.  Showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased over the past 24 hours, and a more
well-defined surface circulation is developing within this trough
about 350 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Some additional development of this system is possible
through this weekend while it moves generally northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.  After that time, colder water and stronger upper-level
winds near the Baja California peninsula should limit development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2015-9-21 15:33

NHC 21Z升格16E
中心已經登陸下加利福尼亞半島

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210243
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP162015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of
the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the
estimated low-level center.  The current intensity estimate remains
at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB.
Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja
California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow
while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase
in strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the
cyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday,
and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter.

The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite
imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain
010/13.  A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with
a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north-
northeastward motion through Monday.  The track guidance is
in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow
morning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs.
The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the
previous one.  This is close to the latest model consensus with a
little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution.

Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and
expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja
California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern
California, and Arizona during the next several days.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially
in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W 25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W 20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch