0908morakot

  一級颶風  
編號：17 E ( 95 E )
名稱：Marty


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 25 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 09 月 27 日 11 時
殘餘重編日期：2015 年 10 月 04 日 07 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 10 月 05 日 16 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：70  kt ( CAT.1 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：986 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
93E.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.10.4N.99W


NHC:30%

2. A broad area of low pressure appears to be forming several hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  This low is likely to
develop into a tropical depression by early next week and move
northward toward the southern coast of Mexico.  Interests in that
region should monitor the progress of this disturbance during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

alu

今年是聖嬰年，東(中)太平洋擾動和颶風是聖嬰年比較多和強，還是反聖嬰年比較多和強

t02436

NHC 21Z報升格17E
03Z報命名Marty
預測36小時內將穩定增強

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270250
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015

The cyclone has become better organized during the past several
hours with a large burst of convection recently trying to form a
central dense overcast.  In addition, the latest microwave images
show some structure to the inner core, along with more pronounced
banding features south of the center.  On the basis of the increased
organization and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial
wind speed is set to 35 kt.

Marty is now moving northward at about 4 kt.  A turn to the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday due to the storm moving around
the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the far eastern
Pacific west of Central America.  While Marty will get close to
being caught by a trough over Mexico, most of the guidance suggest
that the cyclone will be left behind in a couple of days southwest
of the coast of Mexico due to the trough moving away.  Marty would
then drift west-northwestward in the low-level flow as a weaker
cyclone. The NHC forecast has shifted eastward in the first couple
of days, then westward at longer range with more model guidance
showing the solution where the cyclone is left behind.  This is an
uncertain forecast, however, and it wouldn't take much of a
deviation for stronger winds to approach the coast.  A tropical
storm watch could be issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico on
Sunday morning.

Marty is currently in an environment of light wind shear, high mid-
level moisture and very warm waters.  These favorable conditions
should last for the next 24-36 hours and promote intensification
during that time.  While none of the deterministic guidance shows
rapid intensification, the SHIPS-RI index shows about a 70 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in the first 24 hours.  The intensity
forecast is set at the upper end of the guidance, about 5 kt above
the previous prediction through 36 hours.  After that time, almost
all of the global models show a significant increase in
southwesterly shear, which should cause Marty to weaken and probably
dissipate by day 5.  The official forecast is very close to the
previous one and the intensity consensus after 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 13.6N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 14.2N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 15.4N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 15.8N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  01/0000Z 16.2N 102.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 16.5N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

...

先前已降格TD停編 爾後重編為95E並重新評價LOW-20% (圖中2)

預計持續向北接近陸地 隨後消散