簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-10-12 16:15
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MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 150.2E TO 15.2N 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120640Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 149.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 120004Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT CORE WINDS
AND 20 TO 25 KNOT PERIPHERAL FLOW PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. A REVIEW OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS GENERALLY STRENGTHENING AND
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IMPROVING,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 165E. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOWER VWS. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130800Z.
//
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