簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-11-5 14:29
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IMD升格低壓，預測24小時內增強為深低壓。
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.11.2015
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC of
5TH NOVEMBER 2015 BASED ON 0000 UTC of 5TH NOVEMBER 2015
YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF
TODAY THE 5TH NOVEMBER 2015 OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 14.10 N AND LONGITUDE 66.00 E, ABOUT 920 KM SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI (43003) AND 1310 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316),
OMAN. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1006 HPA. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA LIE BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREE
NORTH TO 17.5 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 63.0 DEGREE EAST TO 69.5
DEGREE EAST. MINIMUM CTT IS-81 DEG C
REMARKS: THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN PAST 12 HOURS
WITH INCREASE IN ORGANISATION AND DEPTH. THE WINDS ARE HIGHER OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE IS 29 DEG C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE AND IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ADJACENT TO OMAN AND YEMEN COAST. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS (LOW) AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY AND CONVERGENCE HAVE
INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 160N. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM LEADING TO FORMATION OF DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24
HOURS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT NORTHWESTWARD/ WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT.
Dated: 05. 11. 2015 Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Bulletin No.: ARB05/2015/02
Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea.
The Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved westward at a speed of 14 kmph and lay centred at 0830 IST of today the 5th November 2015 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 14.10 N and longitude 65.60E, about 950 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 1280 km east-southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman. It would move westwards and intensify into a Deep Depression during next 24 hrs. As the system is expected to move away from the Indian coast, no adverse weather is expected along and off west coast of India.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 05th November, 2015
JTWC 06Z評價35節並升格05A。
數值持續預測趨向亞丁灣。
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