B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 153.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272345Z AMSU METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM
AND INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.5N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270404Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM, BUT
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
組圖打開中，請稍候......
