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93W JMA:TD 無緣發展

簽到天數: 2414 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-12-27 08:20 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料   
編號    :93 W
擾動編號日期:2016 12 27 08
消散日期  :2016 12 29 13
93W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.5.5N.154.3E

20161226.2320.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.5.5N.154.3E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-27 13:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC直接評級Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.5N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270404Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM, BUT
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-12-27 18:03 | 顯示全部樓層
2016WP93_16KMGWVP_201612270600.GIF

周圍被乾空氣環伺
對發展來說不是很理想
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-27 18:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 06Z直接升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 06N 153E WEST SLOWLY.

16122715.png

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點評

前方乾空氣....加油了XD  發表於 2016-12-27 22:47
萬一在1/1號前形成 頭尾強颱就破功了  發表於 2016-12-27 22:20
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-28 11:47 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-12-28 14:21 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC也降評Low
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 153.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272345Z AMSU METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM
AND INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

93W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-12-29 13:56 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-12-29 17:05 | 顯示全部樓層
最後還是沒能發展
2016年的風季確定是頭尾呼應

點評

今年的颱風季是要寫進歷史課本的,不能讓一個破颱風來攪局XD  發表於 2016-12-29 22:14
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