THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 118.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 201408Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ DISPLAYS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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