B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.2N 161.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND A 290337Z SSMI 85GHZ DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY DECENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 C). A
282246Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE PERIPHERY
OF VERY PRONOUNCED TROUGHING INDICATIVE OF CIRCULATION FORMING SOON.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE
IN A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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