誰可以告訴我這顆是怎樣
第一次看到GFS模式這麼歡樂...雖然現在看無意義...但好猛喔

掰了96W----確定陣亡...
原本16、17日的數值模式預報各大機構也都改了






連一向歡樂的CMC都把擾動改到南海去了@@

降評Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40
NM SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DETERIORATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. A
080457Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND TRACK IT SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

提升Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072322Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

最新評估是Low

"(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071131Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 071131Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."