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WTPS22 PGTW 271830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.6S 144.4W TO 35.0S 141.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271753Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.5S 144.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 720NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAPE’ETE,
TAHITI. A 271541Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A REGION OF DEEP SYMMETRIC
FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF RAPA ISLAND. A RECENT 270657Z
ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS LOCATED NEAR
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION, WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS)
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL VWS VALUES WILL SUPPORT SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ENTERING A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281830Z.
//
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