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既然澳大利亞氣象局都對Kelvin用了這術語，基本上就是棕海效應了，並表明此前西澳大淹水導致Kelvin經過了飽和含水的土地，而且這些水溫度很高足以提供潛熱。 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018- ... in-bom-says/9468382 
這是西澳內陸，不是海。 |
00Z風速已達35節，但仍未命名，預測06Z強度將達到40節。IDW27600 
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热带气旋10S（十）警告＃01 发布于16 / 0900Z TC警告文本 WTXS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZFEB2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.6S 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.9S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.1S 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.2S 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.0S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 23.7S 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S, ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//NNNN 卫星修复公告 TPXS10 PGTW 160856 A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) B. 16/0830Z C. 18.13S D. 121.10E E. FIVE/HMWRI8 F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 16/0659Z 18.08S 121.60E SSMI LOWE |
組圖打開中，請稍候......
