評價這個氣旋-凱尼 (路徑在好肯定也當不了神)


1. Nora - 雖然有很高OHC支援 ,但是直接被50風切斬夭 , 成神不了.


2. 鯉魚 - 靠近風切幫助達到巔峰 , 之後觸碰40以上風切減弱 .. 觸碰50風切前有達到強颱. 巔峰正好是超強風切被包圍(中間最安全之地)
運氣好.

3. Keni - 南太氣旋的風王路徑天堂 , 但未來可能再度被40風切斬夭.






雖然增強快速 , OHC不夠,也很快就置換了 前方風切很強 , 大致上風切正好減弱 , 或許可能比Nora好點.




(Keni的環境遠比不過Nora , 不要以為這是北半球10月的天堂 , 在南半球4月風季已經要沒落了.不要妄想一個風王存在)
(尤其南太平洋4月環境還不如南印度洋)

命名Keni

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI ON APRIL 081315UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 170.1E AT 081200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELD DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.4S 171.2E MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 16.8S 172.9E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.4S 174.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.7S 176.9E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 082000 UTC.

FMS 編號13F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 050051 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F CENTRE {[1004HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S
AND 169.7E AT 050000UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.

BROAD CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.